SMF Poll Shows Public Backing for Higher Machine Games Duty on Adult Gaming Centres

The Social Market Foundation released polling data in late June 2026 indicating 43% public support for a Labour government doubling Machine Games Duty on adult gaming centres and casinos, and that figure rose when respondents learned the change would spare lower-stake machines in pubs.

Current MGD sits at 20% on Category B £2 slot machines, which generate roughly £600m in annual revenue for the Treasury; the proposed increase to 40% could deliver between £275m and £458m in additional receipts each year according to SMF estimates tied directly to those machines.

Details of the Proposed Tax Adjustment

SMF analysts modelled the impact across the existing estate of high-street venues, noting the duty applies only to higher-stake machines while leaving pub fruit machines untouched, and the same modelling showed the extra revenue could be collected without requiring changes to stake limits or machine numbers.

Polling questions framed the rise as a targeted measure on adult-only locations, producing the 43% support level, while opposition stood lower once the pub exemption was clarified in follow-up questions.

Connection to Andy Burnham and Regional Policy

Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has previously criticised adult gaming centres for locating in areas with higher deprivation indicators, and the SMF release explicitly linked the polling to potential future national policy discussions under his influence within the Labour party.

Burnham's earlier statements focused on planning and licensing powers available to local authorities, yet the new tax proposal would operate through central fiscal levers rather than those local tools.

Context Within 2026 Regulatory Timeline

The SMF figures arrive ahead of scheduled 2026 adjustments to gambling taxation and licensing rules, where both duty rates and venue operating conditions face review, and observers note the polling provides one data point for ministers weighing those combined changes.

Current operators already remit approximately £600m yearly through the 20% rate, so any doubling would layer new costs onto the same machine base without expanding the overall number of devices in use.

SMF researchers emphasised the estimates remain sensitive to player volume shifts that might follow the duty change, yet the core range of £275m to £458m reflects static-volume calculations drawn from recent industry returns.

Broader Public Revenue Considerations

Treasury receipts from gambling duties contribute to general government spending, and the SMF release positioned the proposed increase as one option among several under discussion for the 2026 fiscal year, with no indication that funds would be ring-fenced for specific programmes.

Data from the poll also captured regional variations, showing slightly higher support in urban areas where adult gaming centres cluster, while rural respondents expressed more neutral views once the pub exemption detail was included.

Industry and Venue Landscape

Adult gaming centres operate under strict licensing conditions that already limit machine numbers and require age verification at entry, and the SMF analysis did not propose altering those existing safeguards alongside the duty adjustment.

Casino operators facing the same MGD rise would see parallel cost increases on their Category B machines, although the overall casino estate remains smaller than the high-street AGC network in terms of total machine count.

Conclusion

The SMF polling and revenue projections supply concrete figures on both public opinion and fiscal impact for the proposed Machine Games Duty adjustment, while the documented link to Andy Burnham situates the data within ongoing 2026 policy conversations. Further details appear in the Guardian report covering the same release.